Today was a strong reversal day for crude on a Thursday EIA report. We expected support at where we bought in early in the morning finding a great wave completion zone. The move rallied all the way back into yesterdays trading range and in a hurry. After missing on a -26 (total) trade I was able to get in a +35 tick and +70 tick runner trade and it still kept running. The video wrap is below.
So today we had Crude inventories and FOMC meeting with a Fed rate decision. Normally you know that on these type of days the market is going to be quiet and full of wild swings so I usually choose to just not trade them. This is something I think is hard to learn as a trader and it took me some time to get to it but it saves stress and capital. There are traders with large bank rolls who can afford to get in and play around these events but if you are building an account or trading for extra income etc. there are just always better days to trade on. That is probably one thing I cannot stress enough – Its hard because as a trader you are always ‘plugged in’ and stepping away gets difficult at times so something to practice.
There are going to be educational types who say they have a news strategy and what not but its a pitch – trading news is not good risk management and at the end of the day the name of this game is protecting capital for the days that set up so well its just almost too easy.
I will be out of the room until Monday with some family in town but back then, email or Skype to get a hold.
It’s been about two months since there has been a post on this particular blog so figured it was time. We seem to be back in full force, out of Summer trading, and in to the swing of things. Lately though the market has been pretty slow – The indices really, not the same story for equities. Their have been some huge moves across the board with NetFlix, Google, Chipotle, Priceline and these new highs are a feat to watch to say the very least.
As a futures trader though, its been slow. Not wanting to buy these highs and a VERY indecisive tape make it hard to do much but sit on the sidelines. Then, as a technical trader, everything reads overbought so that keeps one cautious as well. For me, trading a few different markets provides options, something that every trader should have. Crude has been trading well near this $100 level and that has taken place of slow E-Mini and Russell 2000 trading days. The one thing that is always important to remember is sometimes its just best to do nothing. This was the same story this Summer and as discretionary traders idle time is a dangerous thing. It causes impulse trades more than anything but this is all a waiting game. I mean, where else are you going to make this type of money working from a home office?
Just a few thoughts and more posts to come as we are back in the swing.
Good morning traders. Today we have an inventories report and crude hit $112.24 overnight on Middle-East tensions and the possible breakout of war. For those who were with us in the room yesterday you saw that Crude is a market that can be great to trade but also very dangerous if you do not know what you are doing. These next few weeks are going to be very volatile in not only the crude market but also the indexes and most of the trades we’ll be taking in the room will be short-term moves, especially on crude. The game plan is patience for our zones to line up and then waiting on our triggers, really the key to any market environment but especially important as we’ve just seen a large bear correction and a spike in Crude.
The E-Mini is close to reaching a buy zone noted on the chart as we have clearly rolled over, something we discussed last week and in the outlook video this week.
Gold today provided a range failure which signaled us to short this market netting about 6.5 points into channel lows & symmetry completion around $1371-$1369. This was a monster trade, 1 contract netted $550 on this move, depending on where you covered and the size so after that not much more of a day is needed.
The E-Mini came into a range that we had been looking for all week long. FOMC yesterday threw a bit of a wrench into it but the trigger area told us that today was a strong buy up to yesterdays range highs.
Crude came off a long term correction that we had also been talking about for over the last week so we were looking for a buy out of a trigger zone this morning. The action was too choppy to trade with 1 small stop in the morning and we decided after the Gold trade and those who shorted ES (I did not personally) that there was no additional trade on Crude.
Crude completed a final correction today from last weeks $108 sell zone area. Had you been swing trading this position your initial target would have been $105.60 at very minimum for +140 ticks. The break of the $104.41 level today should be the final wave before we get a corrective retrace wave. This is why trading to build your account up pays off, so you can swing trade trend corrections and make big returns. Charts below.
The first trade intraday came right out of the trigger zone for about +35 ticks. Notice the wedge highs and where price continues to react. We took our second trade, up +20 ticks looking for higher but were stopped for +10. The third trade was right into the report. Now why would we trade into news? This was a rare situation. Price came back INTO RANGE and triggered a long with only 11 ticks worth of risk. The key with why we took so many trades today is the reason. Come in and trial the room to learn more.
Yesterdays S1/S2 zones are here, so we came into today prepared knowing where they were.
Here is the larger picture swing on crude. A large trend correcting which mean swing traders did VERY well.